Prospect of Chinese swimming in Rio Olympics

Rio Olympics are coming and many countries had held their Olympics trials this month. US, the swimming powerhouse, will only hold theirs in June.

After Olympics trial, the medal prospect of Chinese swimming is good but gold medal prospects may be grimmer than the last Olympic cycle.

In 2011, Sun Yang and Ye Shiwen won world titles in Shanghai Worlds. Sun Yang had risen to dominant force in 400m and 1500m free and Ye has been swimming top times in women's 200m IM in both 2010 and 2011 although her 400m IM was still a little undeveloped before 2012. Furthermore, Jiao Liuyang and Liu Zige were still swimming fast with vast experience in major competitions since 2008.

The track records aligned well with their results in London Olympics. Sun, Ye and Jiao all shone in the pool. Breakthrough includes men's 4x200m free relay team and Ye's stunning performance in 400m IM, where the last 100m free of her world-record swim was still deemed to be "unbelievable". All their swims were "better appreciated" as they had (at least) some track records and they were not tested positive.

After 2012, changes in Chinese swimming scene does not seem to impress international swimming community.

Their top swimmer, Sun Yang, had gone through a series of troubles and ended up as a drug cheat who secretly served his dope ban. It was a big contrast to his swimming rival, Park Tae Kwan, whose ban came in the same year as Sun while his ban was much longer with ineligibility to be in Rio Olympics. Sun has been winning golds in all major competitions but his dominance was no longer exists. In 400m free, he has not been improving his times after his near-world record swim in 400m free in 2012. His signature event, 1500m free is not progressing either. While he is not improving, his opponents are improving. Horton swum 3:41 this year and there are already two more sub-14:40 swimmers (Horton and Paltrinieri) that could threaten his status. Last year, he already lost his 1500m crown to Paltrinieri and was pushed by James Guy in 400m free. Other than the changed scene in his events, his training could be an issue. He used to train with Zhu Zhigen since young and with Dennis Cotterell in Australia. He also trained with other Chinese team mates like Hao Yun and Li Yunqi, both swimming promising times before 2012 Olympics. After a series of events after Olympics, he split with Zhu and started training with Zhang Yadong, who used to train Luo Xuejuan, women's 100m breaststroke champion in Athens Olympics in 2004. Then it came Brian King, a problematic Australian coach, after Sun Yang was banned from training in those clubs sponsored by government for their Olympic swimmers. He also seemed to train alone with no other team mates. Early this year, Sun Yang injured his foot and his training has been suffered since. He constantly showed his speedy recovery in his Weibo but decided to pull out from the Nationals. Likely, there will be no competitions before Rio for him. Remember, his last competition was September at Nationals. Lack of competitions could be another barrier.

Ye Shiwen's post-Olympic performances were erratic. Her injuries, weight gain and mental state seem to hinder her progress. She won her Olympic titles at 16 and since, she was reported to gain weight that has been changing her physique and she was also reported to be a nervous swimmer, who has been under a lot of competition stress that causes her insomnia. She did not medal in the last 2 Worlds. Both were claimed to be due to some sort of injuries or health conditions. The recent one was the fractured bone in the foot that required surgery. In recent Nationals, she reportedly had a stomach cramp in the 400m IM final after a heat swim of 4:44. Few days later, she won 200m IM at 2:12. Compared to her winning times in Olympics 4 years ago, 4:28 and 2:07, together with Hosszu, who has been dominating women's IMs in recent years, Ye's road to Rio looks very grim.

Butterfly duo, Jiao Liuyang and Liu Zige has helped China regain their power since 2008. Both of them are not going to swim in Rio as both have suffered health problem that hinder their progress, as described in my previous post. Last year, the world title of 200m butterfly went to Natsumi Hoshi and neither Jiao or Liu was in the final. Obviously, their dominance in this event was over although China has a new medalist in this event, Zhang Yufei, who won bronze.

Among these mentioned swimmers, Sun is the only one who has better prospect in winning again at Olympics. Who else could help China maintain or improve their medal count in the upcoming battle?

Overall, it will be tough for China to medal in this edition of Games. Some may tip newly crowned 100m free world champion, Ning Zetao but his event is always highly competitive. His winning time at Kazan last year may not be fast enough to medal in Olympics. Until this point, there have been 3-4 sub-48 swimmers (including him) this year, there will be more fast times in Rio. This year, McEvoy has improved to 47.04 and Ning's progress seemed to be stagnant. In recent National, he suffered from exhaustion after his 47.96 swim at semi final. His health condition causes worries that he needs to swim fast in all three rounds of 100m free on top of all the relays.

Another world champion, Fu Yuanhui, won gold in 50m back but she has not proven to be a force for the podium in 100m back. Her pb is 59.02 but obviously, medalist will need 58. She is now recovering from illness and only finished last in recent Nationals. Without her, China's 4x100m medley relay team will also suffer while they surprised everyone to win last year at Worlds. Their second best swimmer will be Cheng Haihua at 59.55, but lack of experience at major meets will cast a question mark on her performance.

In women's individual events, there are only few medal hopes. In 50m free, Le Jingyi's 24.51 former WR still holds. Chen Xinyi swam 24.53 recently but still not good enough to threaten the top girls. In 100m free, Tang Yi's surprise in winning bronze at last Olympics did not hold long. No other Chinese swimmer (including Tang) surpassed her time (53.27) since while there are more international swimmers going sub-53. The recent Nationals results were not helping as there was only one 53-high swim for the whole meet. In 200m free, good progress to form a fast 4x200m free but there is no sub-1:55 swimmer from China yet. China boast 2 1:55 swimmers and a couple of 1:56 swimmers, which could challenge silver or even gold medal in Rio only if all swimmers swim well. Quality swims were seen in 400m (4:05) and 800m (8:24) free but it is still unrealistic to tip any medalist from China.

In backstroke, Fu Yuanhui is currently the only one who could make an impact in 100m back but she is not in good health condition. Progress in 200m back has been stalled after Zhao Jing retired. In breaststroke, Shi Jinglin could final in 100m and 200m but medaling will be difficult. Her chance in 200m breaststroke is better (as she is a joint bronze medalist last year's Worlds) but she needs a breakout swim to get to top 3.

In butterfly, China has a higher hope to medal. Le Ying has been medalist in major competitions in the last 4 years since she won a silver in London Olympics and her time has been stabilized at 56-high and 57-low. She will need to swim even faster this time to medal again as Sjostrom is almost untouchable and Vollmer has been on the comeback track. China boasts another medal hope as Chen Xinyi swam 56 again this year after a 56.61 in 2014. She was also in the Worlds final last year so this could set up a good stage for her to finish top 3 in Rio. In 200m fly, China currently has three 2:06 swimmers: Zhou Yilin, Zhang Yufei and Wang Siqi. Zhou, at 24, has been a 2:08 swimmer for a number of years. In the recent National, she finally got her breakout swim. While Zhang is still at 18, she had already won bronze at Worlds last year. Wang, still a junior, won world junior title last year and swam 2:06 later last year. All three set up as potential medal contender.

In individual medley, it will be hard to have medal contender if Ye does not regain her 2012 form. Although Zhou Min swam 4:33 before in this Olympic cycle, her recent performances are still not convincing to be medal contender.

There will be more hopes in women's 4x100m medley and 4x200m free relay. In 4x100m medley, even though there was no super swimmer in each leg, their finalist/medalist in each individual 100m event propelled them well to win last year at Worlds. Fu in 100m back, Shi in 100m breaststroke, Le in 100m fly and Shen Duo in free combined well and generated great result. The key will be Fu, who swam 59-low in the relay final last year. Shi improved her 100m breaststroke to 1:06 low this year. Le/Chen will be reliable fly relay swimmer. Shen improved her 200m free to her first sub 1:56 this year even though did not swim well in 100m free. In 4x200m free, Shen and Qiu Yuhan will be key swimmers. Qiu has been improving and given chances in swimming major meets. She already swam 1:56 at Worlds last year and improved to 1:55.8 this year. Last year, they won bronze at Worlds. The other 2 in the final were Guo Junjun, veteran 200m free swimmer, and Zhang Yufei, bronze in 200m fly in the same meet. Zhang will swim again this year, as she finished 4th in recent Nationals at 1:57. The other swimmer could be Ai Yanhan, who swam 1:56. Wang Shijia, another veteran, could also be going as she finished top 6.         
  
On men's side, there are also medal contenders. No medal contender in 50m free as only Ning can swim 21-high, which is not fast enough to medal. Ning may have better luck in 100m if he can swim 47-mid, a slight improvement from his 2014 time (47.65s). In 200-1500m free, Sun Yang will be medal contender but his gold medal chance is lower this time as challenges are stiffer at this Olympics. He will need to swim or surpass his London's time to win.

In men's back, Chinese no. 1 Xu Jiayu will be top 6 contender in both 100m and 200m. Unless he regains his form in 2014 when he swam 52.34s in Chinese Nationals, he could be in the mix in 100m back. So far, he is a consistent 52-mid to 53-low swimmer in major meet but to win a medal, he will need more. He does improve his 200m back to 1:54-high region. At Olympics, a 1:53 or 1:54 low may be required.

In men's breaststroke, which used to be one of the weakest link in China, boasts 2 sub-1:00 swimmers this year in 100m breaststroke. Wang Lizhuo's fate is still unclear due to his doping case even though he got down to 59.64s to put Chinese 4x100m medley team in a good position. In 200m, Worlds finalist last year, Mao Feilian swam 2:09-high this year, could final again if he can go 2:09 low.

In men's fly, medal hope will be Li Zhuhao in 100m fly. He equaled Zhou Jiawei's NR, 51.24s this year. He was finalist at Worlds last year and he has better prospect to get down to 50s region. If this happens, fate will decide whether he will win a medal in an event where Phelps and LeClos are both swimming. After retirement of Wu Peng and Chen Yin, both multiple finalists at major meets, Li could final but medaling could be difficult.

In men's IM event, Wang Shun will carry the medal hope. He won his first medal in 200m IM at Worlds last year (Bronze) in the absence of  Phelps and Hagino so it will be super competitive to finish top 3. His bronze winning time, 1:56.81, is already his pb and he may require something like 1:55 low or 1:54 high to medal.

With the aid of Ning Zetao, China finally put their team in men's 4x100m free final at Worlds last year....In the absence of US and Australia team. It will be hard to final this year but is possible. Apart from Ning, China has two more 48s swimmers, and one 49-low swimmer, so it is still possible. In 4x200m free, China has Sun + two 1:47 swimmers. Wang have to go 1:46 (like what he did back in 2011) or even 1:45 to pick up the pace and then they need 2 more 1:47 splits to hold on before Sun could finish off in good positions. The better prospect in Rio will be 4x100m medley, as a lot of others are talking about and fearing at the same time. They have a 52s back swimmer (Xu), a 51-low fly swimmer (Li) and a sub-48 free swimmer (Ning). Now, they have one more sub-1:00 breaststroke swimmer (Wang) in the team while his participation could infuriate a lot of people. If they swim to their full potential, they could get down to 3:31 and get to the podium. On the other hand, their medal winning could also expect more suspicious noises from others.