Saturday, June 27, 2009

Analysis of entry of Chinese WC contingent

A few days ago, Chinese announced their team for Rome this summer:

 男:21人
  何建彬、程飞轶、吴鹏、张琳、孙杨、张国英、王帅、周嘉威、石峰、薛佳佳、陈寅、陈祚、蔡力、吕志武、史腾飞、刘维佳、孙晗、辛桐、张宇、班豹、汪一鸣;
  女:25人
  郭君君、哈斯楠、朱颖文、任珺妮、焦刘洋、徐妍玮、刘京、李佳星、庞佳颖、杨雨、高畅、赵菁、陈慧佳、王然迪、朱倩蔚、唐奕、孙晔、刘子歌、李哲思、周雅菲、于尧、洪文文、徐田龙子、白安琪、郑蓉蓉

It is not the best team for China but based on the NG strategy, it is considerably strong team. We also see some substitute swimmer for women side for all disciplines. The biggest names absent in the team include Qi Hui and Li Xuanxu from the women side. Qi did really well in April when she set pbs in 100m breast (1:06.69) and 200m IM (2:11.10) which ranked the highest among the Chinese this year. Especially for 1:06.69 in 100m breaststroke (not the mark 1:06.85 put in swimnews.com) which is her 1st sub-1:07 and was just 0.05s away from AR set by Luo Xuejuan back 2004 Olympics. She also won her pet event, 200m breaststroke in 2:24 in the Chinese Nationals. However, the new head coach, Mo Zhenjie, indicated his loss of confidence in Qi who has not performed well in the last few major meets including 2007 WC and 2008 Olympics. As a former WR holder (2:22.99) back in 2001, she never managed to win any long course world title (beween 2001 and 2007) or Olympic medal (2000, 2004 and 2008) which were taken into account. Her best results in WC is silver in 2001, bronze in 2003; and in Olympics is 4th in 2000 Olympics and 5th or 6th in 2004.

Li Xuanxu, rising like a rocket in the last 2 years, is just 15 years old. She has already established herself as a 800m NR holder (8:24) and finalists in 2 Olympic events (400m IM and 800m free). However, she was not selected to the team. No reason is given regarding her absence but I don't think it is due to injuries since she was competiting in the NG qualifier/national junior championships last week and she won the 200m IM in 2:14 which was considered not too bad since this is not her strongest event. One thing is kind of weird is that currently she is not competiting under any province or unit which is prerequisite for chinese athletes competiting domestically. No matter it is provincial team or army team, you need to choose one to compete. According to the past reports, her coach, Feng Zhen, used to coached in Liaoning province and then in Hunan Province where she selected Li. Somehow, they were then training in Guangdong province and competiting 2007 city games under Guangzhou city. And now, she is under "unattached" tag. Hopefully, she will not be another "Chen Yan" who suffered from stomach illness in most of her career and only allowed her hitting big in national games and 1 edition of WC.

Back to the list:
On men's side:
何建彬, He Jianbin (Guangdong)
100m back: 55.69 (2009), 57.03 (2008)
New comer

程飞轶, Cheng Feiyi (Liaoning)
100m back: 54.99 (2009), 56.88 (2008)
New comer

Since Ouyang Kunpeng's doping ban, China suddenly lost their no. 1 backstroke swimmer which makes this discipline even weaker in China. No other Chinese men other than Ouyang swum faster than 55.0 until Cheng who just barely dipped below 55.0 mark. This shows how weak in general the men's backstroke is in China. Unlike their neigbour, Japan, who now consistently have swimmers doing sub 55 and even sub 54. The prospect of these swimmers in WC was not optimistic.

吴鹏, Wu Peng
200m butterfly: 1:54.35 (2008)
He has been one of the iconic swimmers for breakthrough in Chinese men. Emerged in 2001 NG as a 14 year-old to win 200m fly in NR (1:58.89) and then won 3 golds (including defeat ing Yamamoto in 200m fly, AR in 400m IM and surprise win in 200m back) in 2002 Asian Games. Semifinalist in 2003 WC and finalist (6th) in 2004 Athens Olympics. The first male swimmer to win medal in 2 editions of WC (bronze in 2005 and silver in 2007). He tied 4th in Olympics. Unfortunately, he broke his arm this year and is still unable to get back to full training. It will be tough for him to do well in WC this summer.

张琳, Zhang Lin
200m free: 1:45.83 (2009), 1:47.63 (2008)
400m free: 3:42.63 (2009), 3:42.44 (2008)
1500m free: 14:47.51 (2009), 14:45.84 (2008)

Another icon of male improvement in Chinese swimming who won the history Olympic swimming medal on men side. He re-writes the history of major weakness in middle distance free when he is the 1st to be Chinese WC finalist in 200m to 500m free. Since then, there are more and more promising middle distance free swimmers like Sun Yang, Zhang Enjian, Zu Lijun and Ren Chen coming to the scene and performing well. After losing to Park Tae Hwan badly in 2006 and 2007 WC, Zhang was trained under Dennis (Grant Hacket's former coach) in Australia and improved greatly since. He finally rose up to the occasion and won the 400m free silver in 2008 Olympics. His times this year have already showed sign he can do even better in WC. Don't underestimate Park who has been very low-key this year.

孙杨, Sun Yang (Zhejiang)
200m free: 1:48.35 (2009), 1:49.07 (2008)
400m free: 3:49.18 (2009), 3:47.33 (2008)
1500m free: 14:51.94 (2009), 14:48.39 (2008)
Another great long distance free talent after his compatriot Yu Cheng from Zhejiang province. He has shown his ability at the age of 17 when he swam into the Olympic final of 1500m free. Standing at more than 1.9m, he is the one to watch in 2012 and 2016. He also broke 4:20 in 400m IM (4:19.87) this year.

张国英, Zhang Guoying (Guangdong)
100m breaststrok: 1:01.15 (2009), 1:03.56 (2008)

王帅, Wang Shuai (Beijing)
100m breaststroke: 1:01.98 (2009), 1:03.72 (2008)

Both newcomers. Unheard of before 2009, Zhang pushed NR to 1:01 low from Xie Zhi's 1:01.63 last year. Zhang is another other fine breastroke swimmer Guangdong province has been fostering after Zeng, 100m breaststroke finalist in 1996 Olympics and silver medalist in 1998 WC. However, 10 years later, such improvement in NR seems insigificant compared to the rest of the world when more than 10 swimmers around the globe are able to swim sub 1:00. This time, Navy's Qu Jingyu was not selected although he came in 2nd in chinese Nationals with 1:01.16, just 0.01 behind Zhang.

周嘉威, Zhou Jiawei (Guangdong)
50m fly: 23.43 (2009)
100m fly: 52.44 (2009), 51.36s (2008)

He is the 1st Chinese man to swim below 53.0 (52.7 in 2005). Zhou has been around the top in domestic scene for more than 8-9 years but didn't compete much in major meet especially he was dropped from the 2008 Olympics team with no reasons given. About a month after the Olympics last year, he did 51.36 in 100m fly which ranked him 10th in the world. This year, he set the AR in 50m fly which ranked him no. 10 or 11 in the world all time list. However, he pulled out from the 100m fly final in Nationals due to injuries and this angered the head coach who said he will never be selected to the team. I understand his sentiments since Zhou hasn't contributed much for the national team. The only biggest success I can remember is gold in 50m fly in 2006 Asian Games. Nevertheless, his name appears in the list. Hopefully, he does appear in the Worlds. Zhou, himself, told the reporters after setting AR in 50m fly that he wants to do well in Worlds and at least once beat Michael Phelps before he retires. What a statement he made. and let's see.

石峰, Shi Feng (Liaoning)
100m fly: 51.68 (2008), 51.86 (2009)
More well-known to be fly swimmer compared to back swimmer, he has been a consistent performer since 2005 from 53 low to last year 51.68s in Olympics. Coached by Jin Wei, same coach as 2008 Olympic gold medalist in women's fly, Liu Zige, did another 51.86 this year. Last year, he almost made it to the Olympic final when he ranked 9 or 10th in the semi. Only 21, he is one to watch.

薛佳佳, Xue Jiajia (Beijing)
50m breaststroke: 27.94 (2009)
Unheard of before 2009. He finished behind Qu Jingyu (setting NR at 27.74) in 2009 Nationals.

陈寅, Chen Yin (HeBei)
200m fly: 1:56.84 (2009), 1:55.6 (2008)
A very consistent swimmer. Another top swimmer from Hebei province since Qian Hong, women's 100m fly Olympic champion in 1992. He was the finalist in 2007 Worlds. However, he has been overshadowded by Wu Peng in the recent years and he also said once during Nationals this year that he couldn't pace well in the race when Wu was not swimming in front of him. He also made a breakthrough in 100m fly that he dipped below 53s for the 1st time this year (52.99).

陈祚, Chen Zuo (Beijing)
100m free: 48.73 (2009), 49.06(2006), 49.08 (2008)
A leader-like swimmer in the team whose event is hard for him to succeed at the world level. His persistance really pays off. In the late 1990s, he is more a long distance free swimmer and he turned to 100m free swimmer in 2000, 2001. In 2001, he won NG title at only 50.92. At that time, any time below 51s was considered very good in China since the NR had stood at 50.51 since 1989. He and his teammates (including Huang Shaohua) improved a little by little over the years. In 2005, he broke 50s for the 1st time (49.56s) and set former AR at 49.06 in 2006. His 49.06 made him the 1st Chinese male to make world top 25 in the last 15 years. This year, he is 27 years old and he is at 48.73 (AR). He is one of the iconic swimmers who magnifests the evolution of this event in China. With all the suits and fierce competition in this event, it is still difficult for him to make impact in the world level unless he can hit a 47.

蔡力, Cai Li (Zhejiang)
50m free: 22.86 (2005), 22.50 (2008), 22.19 (2009)
100m free: 50.12 (2008), 49.15 (2009)
吕志武, Lu Zhiwu (Zhejiang)
50m free: 22.44 (2008), 22.24 (2009)
100m free: 50.08 (2007), 49.32 (2009)
史腾飞, Shi Tengfei (Beijing)
100m free: 49.25 (2008), 49.47 (2009)

Duo from Zhejiang alongside Beijing newcomer represent the new generation of Chinese male sprint free. Cai Li (22yo) has been the top 50m free swimmer since 2005 and took down the NR this year at 22.19s. Lu Zhiwu (20yo), also did well in 50m free when he swam 22.44 last year and did 22.24 this year (also below old NR). They both set pbs in 100m with 49.15 and 49.32, respectively this year. Shi did a fast 49.25s last year and settled at 49.47 this year. With all 4 sub-50s swimmers, there will be a chance to make to the relay final. Actually, the recent trend is quite promising for men's 100m free as for the last 2 years (2008-2009), there have been at least 8 sub-50s swimmers in China compared to none before 2005. Recently, Shi Runqiang also posted a fast 48.89s, the 2nd sub-49s performer in China.

刘维佳, Liu Weijia, Liaoning

400m IM: 4:20.05 (2003), 4:17.86 (2007), 4:18.41 (2008), 4:15.16 (2009)

Another top IM swimmer from Liaoning after Chen Yan, former women 400m IM WR holder and world champion. Liu was Olympian back in 2004 as a 15yo but did not make the team in 2008 although he was the only man who beat the A-qualifying mark. He was also once the NR holder in 200m breaststroke in 2005. However, he has not achieved much in the international swimming. From 2009, Liu has shown a great form. He did a Asian record (4:04.53) in 400m IM short course in Japan Open to defeat all the great IM swimmers from the host. Then, he also pulled another NR in long course (4:15.16) in April to erase Wu Peng's 7 year-old NR. To make to the Worlds final, he may need to go down to 4:12 or 4:11 which I don't think it is easy for him to slice another a few seconds off.

孙晗, Sun Han, Beijing
200m IM: 2:03.69 (2008)

辛桐, Xin Tong, Beijing
200m free: 1:50.37 (2008)
400m free: 3:52.20 (2008)

张宇, Zhang Yu, Beijing
200m back: 2:02/03

No idea why they were selected and obviously, they are not top 3 or 5 in China. The only similarity is that they are all from Beijing.

班豹, Ban Bao, Liaoning

汪一鸣, Wang Yiming, Anhui
200m fly

4th in recent Nationals. Coached by Olympic silver medalist, Jiao Liuyang's coach, Liu Haitao

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